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Trends in Population (1950-1995) and Projections (2000-2025)!
Total Population:
Recent trends of world population for the period 1950-95 and projections from 2000-2025 given in Table 1 reveal that the world population was 251.97 crores in 1950. Since then, it has continuously increased. It increased to 571.64 crores in 1995 and to 613.35 crores in 2001. Thus, the population of the world has more than doubled in 50 years and it is projected to reach 829.43 crores in 2025.
The population of Africa was 22.10 crores in 1950 and it increased by three times in 1995 and reached 72.81 crores. It is projected to reach 149.58 crores in 2025, which means that the population of Africa will double in the year 2025. The European population was 54.87 crores in 1950 and it increased to 72.70 crores in 1995. The increase was very slow during this period. It is projected to decrease to 71.82 crores in 2025. Of course, it is a very small decrease.
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Thus, population growth is very slow and it confirms to the pattern and principle of demographic transition theory that economic growth accompanied by high standard of living controls world population growth to a great extent.
The population of North and Central America was 21.96 crores in 1950 and it continuously increased and reached 45.42 crores in 1995, thereby doubling in 45 years. It is projected to reach 61.55 crores in 2025. This will be a very modest increase in 30 years, thereby confirming the last stage of the demographic transition theory. The population of South America was 11.17 crores in 1950 which increased by almost three times during 45 years. It is projected to increase to 46.27 crores in 30 years.
Population growth in Asia has been rapid. It was 140.27 crores in 1950 which grew to 345.80 crores in 1995. It is projected to reach 496.00 crores in 2025. This also confirms to the second stage of the demographic transition theory that due to high birth rate and low death rate population grows at a rapid rate.
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The population of Oceania was 1.26 crores in 1950, since then it has been continuously increasing and had almost doubled by 1995. It is projected to increase to 4.10 crores in 2025.
Growth Rate of Population:
The average annual world population increased by 1.7 per cent during 85. 1.6 per cent during 1990-95 and it is projected to increase by 1.4 per cent during 2000-05.During the same period, the population of Africa increased by 2.9 per cent in 1980-85, 2.8 per cent in 1990-95 and is projected to increase by 2.6 per cent during 2000-05. Thus the population of Africa has increased by a higher percentage due to the economic backwardness of many areas.
The population of Europe increased only by 0.4 per cent during 1980-85, 0.2 per cent during 1990-95 and it is projected that its population will remain stable during 2000-05. Thus, in an underdeveloped region like Africa, the population has increased by a higher percentage, while in a developed region like Europe, it has increased at a very slow rate.
The population of North and Central America increased by 1.3 per cent during 1980-85, 1.4 per cent during 1990-95 and it is projected to increase by 1.1 per cent during 2000-05. The population of South America increased by 2.1 per cent during 1980-85, 1.7 per cent during 1990-95 and it is projected to increase by 1.4 per cent during 2000-05.
Thus, the growth rate of population in North and Central America is much lower than in South America, because the former is a developed region and the latter is an underdeveloped region.
The population of Asia increased by 1.9 per cent during 1980-85, 1.6 per cent during 1990-95 and is projected to increase by 1.4 per cent during 2000-j 05. The population of Asia has been increasing at a diminishing rate. This is due to economic development and spread of family planning programmes in Asian countries.
The population of Oceania increased by 1.5 per cent during 1980-85, by 1.5 per cent during 1990-95 and is projected to increase by 1.3 per cent during 2000-05. Thus, the population of Oceania has increased at a stable rate and it is even projected to increase at a diminishing rate. This is because Oceania is comparatively a developed region.
Crude Birth Rate:
The crude birth rate in the world was 30.9 per thousand during 1970-75 which declined to 25.0 in 1990-95 and to 22.0 in 2001. The birth rate in Africa was 46.5 per thousand in 1970-75 which declined to 41.9 in 1990-95 and to 38 in 2001. In Europe, the crude birth rate was 15.6 in 1970-75, which declined to 11.6 in 1990-95 and to 10 in 2001.
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In North and Central America, the crude birth rate was 22.8 in 1970-75 which declined to 20.2 in 1990-95 and to 14 in 2001. In South America, the birth rate was 32.9 in 1970-75 which declined to 24.9 in 1990-95 and to 24 in 2001. In Asia, the crude birth rate was 33.9 in 1970-75 which declined to 25.2 in 1990-95 and 22 in 2001. In Oceania, the crude birth rate was 23.9 in 1970-75 which declined to 19.2 in 1990-95 and to 18 in 2001.
The above figures reveal that the birth rate was high is Africa, Asia and South America which are underdeveloped, while it was low in Europe, North and Central America and Oceania which are developed regions.
The low birth rate in Europe indicates that developed countries like Britain, France, Germany, etc. are passing through the third stage of demographic transition whereas high birth rate in Asia and Africa indicates that underdeveloped countries like India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Kenya, etc. are passing through the second stage of demographic transition theory of population.
Crude Death Rate:
The crude death rate in the world was 11.7 in 1970-75 which declined to 9.3 in-1990-95 and to 9 in 2001. In Africa the death rate was 19.2 in 1970-75 which declined to 13.7 in 1990-95 but increased to 14 in 2001. In Europe, the death rate was 10.1 in 1970-75 which increased to 11.2 in 1990-95 and was 11 in 2001.
This increase was due to the increase in the death rate in less developed countries of Europe. In North and Central America, the death rate was 9.2 in 1970-75 which declined to 7.8 in 1990-95 but increased to 9 in 2001. In South America, the death rate was 9.7 in 1970-75, which declined to 7.1 in 1990-95 and to 8 in 2001.
In Asia, the death rate was 11.4 in 1970-75 which declined to 8.4 in 1990-95. In Oceania, the death rate was 9.6 in 1970-75 which declined to 7.8 in 1990-95 and further to 7 in 2001.
The above analysis shows that the crude death rate declined all over the world during the period 1970-75 and 1990-95 and in 2001 due to the spread of better medical facilities, except in Europe where it increased by 1.2 per thousand.
In all parts of the world, the death rate as compared to the birth rate is low and thus the overall growth rate of population is high and the world population keeps on increasing.
Infant Mortality Rate:
The infant mortality rate in the world was 93 per thousand live births in 1970-75, which declined to 64 in 1990-95 and to 56 in 2001. In Africa, it was 131 in 1970-75 which declined to 93 in 1990-95 and to 88 in 2001. In Europe, this rate was 25 in 1970-75 which declined to 12 in 1990-95 and to 9 in 2001.
In North and Central America, the infant mortality rate was 35 in 1970-75 which declined to 19 in 1990-95 and to 7 in 2001. In South America, it was 84 in 1970-75 which declined to 48 in 1990-95 and to 31 in 2001.
In Asia, this rate was 98 in 1970-75 which declined to 65 in 1990-95 and to 55 in 2001. In Oceania, the infant mortality rate was 41 in 1970-75 which declined to 27 in 1990-95 but increased to 28 in 2001. The above figures reveal that the infant mortality rate was high in Africa, Asia and South America while it was low in Europe, North and Central America, and Oceania.
Though the infant mortality rate has declined all over the world but the decline has been more in developed regions than in the less developed regions of the world. It shows that medical facilities and child care programmes have not helped much in reducing infant mortality in underdeveloped regions of the world.
Expectation of Life:
Life expectation at birth in the world was 57.9 years in 1970-75 which increased to 64.7 years in 1990-95 and to 65 years for males and 69 years for females in 2001. In Africa, it was 46 years in 1970-75 which increased to 52.8 years in 1990-95 and to 52 years for males and 55 years for females in 2001. In Europe it was 70.8 in 1970-75 which increased to 72.9 years in 1990-95 and to 70 years for males and 78 years for females in 2001.
In North and Central America the expectation of life was 68.6 in 1970-75 which increased to 74.1 in 1990-95 and to 74 years for males and 80 years for females. In South America, it was 60.17 years in 1970-75 which increased to 68.5 years in 1990-95 and to 68 years for males and 74 years for females in 2001.
In Asia, the expectancy of life was 56.3 years in 1970-75 which increased to 64.8 years in 1990-95 and to 65 years for males and 68 years for females in 2001. In Oceania, it was 66.6 years in 1970- 75 which increased to 73.0 years in 1990-95 and to 72 years for males and 76 years for females in 2001.
The above figures reveal that expectations of life has increased all over the world. It has been high in Europe, North and Central America, South America and Oceania, while it has been low in Africa and Asia. This may be due to improvement in medical care and higher standard of living.
High infant mortality rate and low expectation of life in underdeveloped countries as compared to developed countries has been due to low public expenditure on health. The World Development Report, 1999/2.000, reveals that public expenditure on health as percentage of GDP was 1 percent in low income countries, 0.7 per cent in India, 1.8 percent in low and middle income countries, 2.1 in China between 1990-97, whereas it was very high in high income (developed) countries. Only 55 per cent of the population in low income (least developed) countries had access to safe drinking water as compared to almost 100 per cent in developed countries in 1995.
Density of Population:
While analysing the land expansion and density of the different parts of the world, we find that more than half the population of the world lives in Asia, while the land area of Asia is only 20 percent of the world’s land area. America comes second where 14.14 percent of the world’s population lives in 30.99 percent of the world’s total land area.
In Europe 12.08 percent population of the world lives in 3.43 percent of area while in Africa 10.05 percent population of the world lives in 22.32 percent of area, while the least 0.54 percent of population lives in a large area of 6.27 percent in Oceania.
Regarding the density of population, the World Development Report, 2002 shows that the density of population in the world was 47 per sq.km in 2001. It was the highest in South Asia and the lowest in Europe and Central Asia, being 283 and 20 per sq. km. respectively.
Working Population:
The number of children in the age group 1-14 years is much higher in underdeveloped countries as compared to the developed countries. It was 35 per cent in the former as against 25 per cent in the latter. On the other hand, the working population in the age group of 15-64 years is higher in developed countries than in underdeveloped countries, being 63 per cent and 55 per cent respectively. In the 65-plus age group the percentage of population in developed countries is 9.9 per cent as against 3 per cent in underdeveloped countries,
The above figures reveal that the burden of rearing children is much higher on the resources of underdeveloped countries who need to be sheltered, fed, educated, and absorbed in the workforce when they grow up.
Rural-Urban Population:
The world urban population was 153.8 crores in 1975 which increased to 258.4 crores in 1995 and is projected to increase to 506.5 crores in 2025. The percentage of world urban population was 38, 45 and 61 in 1975, 1995, and 2025 respectively. The growth rate of urban population in the world was 2.5 per cent during 1990-95 and that of rural population 0.8 per cent, as shown in Table 3.
Thus, the world urban population has been continuously growing. The percentage of urban population has been continuously rising in Europe from 67 in 1975, 74 in 1995 to a projected 83 in 2025. But the growth rate of urban population was 0.6 percent and of rural population 1.0 percent during 1990-95 in Europe.
The percentage of urban population was 57 in 1975, 68 in 1995 and will be 79 in 2025 in North and Central America. But the growth rate of urban population was 1.8 and of rural population 0.4 percent during 1990-95. The percentage of urban population was 64 in 1975,78 in 1995 and will be 88 percent in 2025 in South America. While the growth rate of urban population was 2.5 per cent and of rural population 0.8 per cent during 1990-95.
The percentage of urban population in Asia was 25 in 1975, 35 in 1995, and is projected to be 55 in the year 2025. Thus, the pace of urbanization has been lower in Asia than in developed countries. But the growth rate of urban population was 3.3 percent and that of rural population 0.8 percent during the same period.
Thus the growth rate of urban population is higher than other parts of the world. This shows that with development the process of urbanisation is on the increase at a rapid rate.
In Oceania, the percentage of urban population was 72 in 1975, 70 in 1995 and will be 75 in 2025. Thus, the pace of urbanisation has been high in Oceania during this period. But the growth rate of urban population was 1.5 per cent and of rural population 1.7 per cent.
The growth rate of urban population has been somewhat slow in Oceania as compared to the growth of rural population because countries like Australia and New Zealand have vast tracts of land in rural areas.
The above analysis shows that the world’s urban population has been continuously rising and this is also reflected in the high percentage of urban population and high growth rates of urban population during 1990-95.
We can conclude that along with economic and industrial development, the percentage of urban population and its growth rates have been high in developed regions, while they are low in Asia because Asian countries are relatively less developed.